Dangote refinery now sends more fuel abroad than it supplies at home

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery shipped out more refined fuel than it released into the Nigerian market in September, according to the downstream regulator's monthly fact sheet.

Daily exports of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel from the plant climbed to 54.63 million litres, up from 39.78 million litres in August. That is a jump of about 37 per cent in a month.

Over the same period, the volume the refinery sent into Nigeria fell to 39.98 million litres a day from 51.31 million litres, a drop of roughly 22 per cent.

The result: about 14.65 million litres a day more went abroad than stayed home. In August the reverse was true, with domestic receipts ahead of exports by 11.53 million litres a day.

For motorists and businesses, the key question is what this means for supply and pump prices at home. The figures show the plant can meet national demand, but a larger share of its output is now leaving the country.

What the numbers show

The refinery raised output even as it exported more. Combined production of the three products rose to 97.67 million litres a day from 84.43 million litres, and the plant ran at about 106 per cent of its 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity.

Petrol output alone reached 47.22 million litres a day, above the 44.4 million litres Nigerians are estimated to consume daily. Of that, 28.50 million litres went into the local market, 15.47 million litres were exported and 3.25 million litres went into storage.

Diesel told a sharper story. The refinery produced 24.32 million litres a day but released only 8.14 million litres into Nigeria, less than half of what it sent abroad. The regulator linked weak diesel receipts nationwide to low imports and slow local offtake amid high prices.

Jet fuel exports drove much of the crossover, accounting for about 87 per cent of the refinery's aviation fuel evacuation.

Nationwide, average daily petrol receipts fell to 38.7 million litres from 50.5 million litres, with imports down about 30 per cent after approved permit volumes ran out, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

Domestic refining covered about 65 per cent of national petrol use in September. Petrol stock cover stood at 23.9 days, short of the regulator's 30-day benchmark, while diesel cover slipped to 49.7 days from 51.6 days.

What happens next

Watch the October fact sheet for whether the export tilt holds or reverses. Also watch diesel prices, since local receipts are at a 13-month low while consumption is put at 14.5 million litres a day.