Refinery crude supply fell 6.3% in September as petrol supply dropped 23.4%

Crude oil deliveries to Nigerian refineries fell 6.3 per cent in September to 15.97 million barrels, down from 17.05 million barrels in August, according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The same month, average daily petrol supply dropped 23.4 per cent to 38.7 million litres from 50.5 million litres in August, the regulator's September 2026 midstream and downstream report showed.

For motorists and businesses, that is less fuel entering the market in a single month. The report blamed the fall on lower domestic output and fewer imports, as approved import permit volumes ran out.

Domestic refineries still supplied most of the petrol, about 73.6 per cent of total receipts, against 26.4 per cent from imports. September's daily figure was also below the 13-month average of 49.7 million litres a day.

Dangote runs above capacity as NNPC refineries stay idle

Between January and September 2026, refineries received a combined 156.51 million barrels of crude. Domestic crude made up 125.85 million barrels, or 80.4 per cent, while imported crude supplied 30.66 million barrels, or 19.6 per cent.

Dangote Refinery operated at 105.98 per cent of its installed 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity in September, processing about 689,000 barrels a day against receipts of roughly 618,000 barrels a day. The gap of about 71,000 barrels a day came from stored crude, the report said.

The refinery produced 47.22 million litres of petrol daily, along with 24.32 million litres of diesel and 26.13 million litres of aviation fuel. Closing stocks stood at 366.2 million litres of petrol, 232.5 million litres of diesel and 141 million litres of aviation fuel.

Exports took 35.2 per cent of the refinery's petrol, and its diesel and aviation fuel exports were larger than domestic supplies.

By contrast, the Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna refineries, all owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), did not produce in September, according to the report. Tribune reported that the three plants stayed idle through the nine-month period, which cuts against the push to rely less on imported fuel.

The sources differ slightly on September's total crude intake. Vanguard put the month's supply at 15.97 million barrels, while Tribune's factsheet listed September intake at 18.53 million barrels, with August highest at 21.10 million barrels and March next at 20.92 million barrels.

What happens next

With import permits exhausted, petrol supply in the coming months will lean more heavily on what domestic refineries can produce and release from storage. Any further drop in crude deliveries to Dangote could tighten supply and put pressure on pump prices.