Report projects 31,400 extra heat deaths in Nigeria as strong El Niño builds

Nigeria could record about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab, a research group. The estimate comes as an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern builds.

The figure is nearly half of the 66,800 extra heat deaths the report projects across the Sahel. Sudan is forecast at 17,500, Niger at 10,000 and Chad at 8,000.

The report, titled 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, was published on 22 September 2026. It puts the global toll at 451,000 additional heat deaths between June 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year.

The researchers say the numbers are extra deaths above what an average year would bring, not the total number of heat deaths. They also warn the estimates could change as forecasts are updated, and that deaths could keep rising after February 2027.

For Nigeria, the report projects 15,400 of the additional deaths in December 2026 to February 2027 alone.

Why it matters to ordinary Nigerians

Extreme heat is hardest on people who work outside, older people, young children and households without fans, air conditioning or steady electricity. About 87.3 million Nigerians lack access to electricity, according to TheCable's report on the projections, which makes cooling out of reach for many.

Heat can also raise demand for water and power, hurt farm yields and squeeze outdoor traders and labourers whose income depends on the day's work.

Temperatures have already climbed in recent days. The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) recorded 41°C in Nguru, Yobe state, and 34°C in Lagos.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UN humanitarian office (OCHA) say this El Niño could be one of the strongest on record. WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said it could peak towards the end of 2026, with effects lasting long after. She said Pacific temperatures could run 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027.

Tom Fletcher, the UN's emergency relief coordinator, said about 50 million people could face increased hunger. He said the African Development Bank estimates the crisis could cost African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion and cut their GDP by one to two per cent.

Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the large figure is made up of ordinary people. "It is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbors," he said.

The report calls for heat warnings, cooling centres, water points, checks on vulnerable residents, protection for outdoor workers and stronger health services. Co-author Tamma Carleton said emergency action can save lives now, but governments must also prepare for hotter years ahead.

What happens next

The UN has released more than $50 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund to support 11 countries at the forefront of the crisis, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. Fletcher said the next two weeks would be critical for preparedness, including cash support for vulnerable households and help for farmers and herders to protect crops and livestock.

Nigerians can follow forecasts from NiMet and flood outlooks from the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), and heed warnings from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA).