Report projects 33.5 million Nigerians will face acute food insecurity by mid-2027
- The Cadre Harmonisé analysis projects 33.5 million people in 26 states and the FCT will face acute food insecurity between June and August 2027.
- For October to December 2026, it estimates 26.8 million people, including 756,815 displaced persons in Borno, Sokoto and Zamfara, at crisis level or worse.
- The report blames conflict, displacement, fuel prices, climate shocks and food inflation, and calls for stronger nutrition and early-warning efforts.
About 33.5 million Nigerians, including people displaced from their homes, are expected to struggle to get enough food between June and August 2027, according to a new national food and nutrition assessment.
The October 2026 Cadre Harmonisé analysis covers 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory. It was released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security with technical backing from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and other partners.
The picture is already grim for the last three months of this year. The report estimates that 26.8 million people will be in crisis or worse between October and December 2026. That figure includes 756,815 displaced people in Borno, Sokoto and Zamfara states.
For the June to August 2027 window, the projection includes 891,228 displaced people in those same three states.
Why the numbers are rising
The report points to conflict and insecurity, displacement, higher fuel prices, climate shocks and expensive food as the main forces pushing more households into hunger.
Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto are among the states where people are eating the least, the analysis found.
Poor diets, weaker purchasing power, disease outbreaks, insecurity and limited access to healthcare, clean water and sanitation could also worsen acute malnutrition, the report warns. Children under five and pregnant or breastfeeding women are most at risk.
It recommends closer nutrition monitoring, better prevention and treatment of acute malnutrition, food support, and combined health, water and sanitation programmes in the worst-hit areas.
At the presentation in Abuja, the FAO Representative in Nigeria and ECOWAS, Dr Hussein Gadain, said the findings give government and development partners evidence to plan ahead and decide where to invest. He spoke through Jimmy Owani, a senior programme officer in the office of Emergency and Resilience.
Gadain also stressed that Nigeria should keep leading the coordination of food security work and that early-warning systems need to be stronger.
The Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr Marcus Ogunbiyi, said the government is working to grow more food at home. He listed efforts to help farmers get inputs and finance, expand mechanisation and irrigation, and promote farming that copes better with climate change.
He named the Renewed Hope Farm Input Support Programme, the Renewed Hope Agricultural Mechanisation Programme and the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones as key initiatives.
Ogunbiyi also said 10 states are not yet fully part of the Cadre Harmonisé process. He asked development and humanitarian partners to help with training, data collection and analysis so the whole country can be covered.
What happens next
Wider coverage would give the government and aid groups a fuller picture and help them target support earlier, Ogunbiyi said. For now, the report's message is that hunger is set to deepen unless the drivers it names are tackled.
