UN report says world heading for 2.6C warming even if climate pledges are met
- A UN report says global emissions stayed at record levels in 2025.
- Even full delivery of national climate pledges points to 2.6C warming by 2100.
- Current policies alone would mean 2.8C, the report adds.
The world is on course to heat up by 2.6C this century even if every country delivers its latest climate promises in full, according to a United Nations report released on Wednesday.
The annual Emissions Gap Report, put together by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), found that global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 stayed at about the same record level as 2024. The gap between the two years was too small to call.
If governments stick only to the policies already in place, warming would reach about 2.8C by 2100, the report said. Both figures sit far above the Paris Agreement targets of holding warming well below 2C and aiming for 1.5C.
The report said the chance of staying within 1.5C has been lost after decades of weak action. The planet has already warmed by roughly 1.4C since pre-industrial times, and scientists expect the 1.5C mark to be crossed within a few years.
Why it matters beyond the weather
For Nigerians, the report's warnings are not abstract. It points to more severe floods, harsher heatwaves and damaged economies, with the poorest countries hit hardest even though they pollute least. Nigeria has faced repeated flooding in recent years, and farmers in the north are already battling shifting rains.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the consequences are already being felt. "Deadly floods, brutal heatwaves, raging wildfires, lost lives, crippled economies, deepening inequalities, and those least responsible are suffering first and worst," he said at the launch.
He added that national plans and current policies "fall dangerously short".
The report said the G20 group of major economies accounts for about three-quarters of global emissions. Emissions growth among them has slowed, but the United States stood out as a "major exception".
Among the six biggest emitters, early 2025 data showed rises in the US, Indonesia and China, and falls in India, Russia and the European Union. The US increase of 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent was the largest of any country, driven by higher electricity demand and more coal power.
Report co-author Anne Olhoff said this year's outlook is worse than last year's, partly because the US formally left the Paris accord and because historical emissions figures were revised upward.
UNEP executive secretary Inger Andersen said no country is safe from climate impacts, "including the US".
What happens next
Political leaders meet at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, from November 9 to 20. The report sets out what it would take to bring warming back to 1.5C by 2100: emissions would need to fall by six percent every year until 2035, starting now. Current projections are nowhere near that.
Some climate-vulnerable nations have accused big emitters of walking away from Paris, and a fight over the 1.5C target is expected at the summit. Guterres said passing 1.5C "is not surrender", but he acknowledged a gap in climate leadership.
