World Bank warns of 23% commodity price rise, with Nigeria facing fresh inflation pressure
- The World Bank says global commodity prices will rise 23 per cent in 2026, driven by Middle East conflict and food supply disruptions.
- Energy prices are forecast to jump 32 per cent, with Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel, up from $69 in 2025.
- Analysts say Nigerian households could feel the pinch through fuel, transport, fertiliser and food costs.
Nigerians should brace for more pressure on fuel, transport and food costs after the World Bank projected that global commodity prices will rise by 23 per cent in 2026.
The bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released on Wednesday, blamed the Middle East conflict, falling oil inventories and disruptions to grain shipments. It warned that the increases could worsen inflation, food insecurity and slow growth, especially in poorer countries that depend on imports.
Energy prices are expected to climb 32 per cent this year, ending three straight years of decline. The bank put Brent crude at an average of $91 a barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 in 2027.
What it means for Nigerian households
Nigeria imports most of its refined fuel, so higher crude prices can feed quickly into pump prices, bus fares and the cost of moving goods. Food prices are also exposed: the bank expects food commodity prices to rise about 10 per cent in 2026 and another 7 per cent in 2027, a cumulative 18 per cent.
Fertiliser is projected to cost 14 per cent more this year, which could raise costs for farmers already battling high fuel and transport bills. Higher grain prices abroad may also make imported food more expensive.
But the bank's outlook is not a direct forecast for Nigeria. The real impact will depend on domestic production, export volumes, the exchange rate, petrol prices and how much of the global rise is passed on to consumers. Higher crude prices do not automatically mean more money for government or relief for households.
Ayhan Kose, the bank's Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, said commodity markets were being hit by several major shocks at once. "The priority must be to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens," he said.
The World Bank said it has made between $50bn and $60bn available through existing financing instruments, including $25bn in pre-arranged financing. The money could support social safety nets, government budgets, and working capital for businesses and farms.
The risks ahead
The bank said its projections assume no major escalation of conflicts affecting supplies. If the Middle East conflict worsens, Black Sea grain shipments are attacked and El Niño hits harvests hard, Brent could average $105 a barrel in 2027 and food prices could be 12 per cent above the baseline, exceeding 2022 levels.
Global oil supply is expected to fall 5.2 per cent in 2026, the biggest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 recession, while consumption falls 2.5 per cent. Metal prices are forecast to rise 25 per cent and precious metals 40 per cent.
What happens next: The World Bank expects overall commodity prices to fall 7 per cent in 2027 if conflicts do not escalate. For Nigeria, the coming months will show how much of the global price pressure reaches fuel pumps, markets and farm gates.
