Analyst lists 23 states Tinubu could win in 2027 as Barau predicts victory
- A Bauchi-based analyst, Samuel Yusuf, named 23 states he believes President Tinubu can win in 2027.
- He cited governor defections to the APC and opposition fragmentation as reasons for the projection.
- Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin separately said he expects Tinubu to win the January 16, 2027 election.
A political analyst, Samuel Yusuf, has listed 23 states where he believes President Bola Tinubu could win in the 2027 presidential election, pointing to governor defections and a divided opposition.
Yusuf, who is based in Bauchi, shared the projection in an interview with Legit.ng published on Saturday, October 31, 2026. He said the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has gained ground in several states as governors and other politicians have moved over from opposition parties.
His list spans the North, the South-West, the South-South and the South-East. It includes states Tinubu lost in 2023, such as Kaduna, Plateau and Edo, where he argues APC structures and weaker opposition could change the result.
What the analyst says about the states
In the North, Yusuf named Bauchi, Kaduna, Taraba, Zamfara, Adamawa, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kebbi, Katsina, Niger and Sokoto. He tied several of these to governors he said had defected to the APC, including Agbu Kefas of Taraba, Dauda Lawal of Zamfara and Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa.
He also pointed to the influence of figures such as former President Muhammadu Buhari, Nuhu Ribadu, Yakubu Dogara and Senator Abdulaziz Yari in parts of the North.
For the Middle Belt and North-Central, he listed Plateau, Benue and Kwara, citing Governor Caleb Mutfwang's move to the APC and the influence of Nentawe Yilwada in Plateau.
In the South-West, he named Ekiti and Osun, saying Governor Ademola Adeleke's support for Tinubu could help flip a state the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) previously held. In the South-South, he listed Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River and Akwa Ibom, and in the South-East he named Imo and Edo.
Yusuf's projections are his own assessment, not an official forecast. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has not released a final list of candidates, and no votes have been cast.
Barau joins the predictions
Separately, the Deputy President of the Senate, Senator Barau Jibrin, said he expects Tinubu to win the election scheduled for January 16, 2027.
Barau spoke at the weekend while inaugurating campaign committees for Dawakin Tofa, Tofa and Rimin Gado local government areas of Kano State, according to a statement on Sunday by his media aide, Ismail Mudashir.
"All indications suggest that, by Allah's grace, Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win the presidential election," Barau said, citing analysts' assessments and the foundation laid by the current administration.
He described Kano as a key battleground, noting it has the second-highest number of registered voters after Lagos. He said Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf's defection from the New Nigeria People's Party (NNPP) to the APC had strengthened the state's political relevance.
Barau urged the new committees to mobilise support so that all APC candidates win in 2027.
What happens next
Party primaries, INEC's candidate list and the actual vote will test these predictions. For now, they remain opinions from political figures and an analyst, not results.