Court ruling on ADC could widen Tinubu's 2027 margin, analysts say

A Federal High Court in Abuja has nullified the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) faction led by former Senate President David Mark, along with decisions taken under that leadership.

Among the decisions invalidated is the party's May 25 presidential primary, which produced former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as the ADC's presidential candidate. Justice Peter Lifu declared the Mark-led interim National Working Committee illegal, according to reports of the ruling.

The case matters beyond the party's internal affairs. It touches directly on who appears on the ballot in the 2027 presidential election, and how opposition votes may be shared across the country.

What the analysts are saying

The Political Intelligence Group (PIG), a political analysis outfit, said the ruling could change its November projection of the 2027 race. In a statement issued in Lagos on Friday, the group said it had reviewed its earlier forecast. BusinessDay named its chairman as Lai Omotosho, while Tribune gave the name as Lai Omotola.

PIG had earlier projected a close contest among three leading candidates, with President Bola Tinubu holding a narrow lead, Peter Obi of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) second, and Atiku third.

Following the ruling, the group said its projection could shift toward a wider margin for Tinubu, particularly in the North, if the judgment is upheld on appeal and Atiku is kept off the ballot. PIG argued that many Northern voters would prefer Tinubu to serve another four-year term rather than see an eight-year presidency under Obi.

The group was careful to add that its assessment depends on the judicial process. The ADC can challenge the ruling on appeal, and PIG said its December edition would offer a fuller assessment once the appeal outcome is clearer.

PIG also noted that a final judicial decision on the ADC leadership crisis will shape the party's ability to organise its campaign, settle internal disputes and work with a broader opposition coalition ahead of 2027.

What happens next

The immediate question is whether the ADC appeals the judgment. Until that is settled, Atiku's place on the 2027 ballot remains uncertain, and so does the shape of the opposition contest.

For ordinary Nigerians, the practical effect will show in how the parties organise, who they field, and how the campaign plays out in the North and across the country.