Seven modular refineries expected to start in 2027, adding 83,000 bpd
- Argus Media analyst George Maher-Bonnett said seven modular refineries are expected to start next year with 83,000 barrels per day combined.
- Four modular refineries were running in September with 32,000 bpd, he told the OTL Africa Downstream conference in Lagos.
- He said fuel demand fell this year on higher prices, while the Dangote refinery keeps running hard.
Seven new modular refineries are expected to begin operations in Nigeria next year, with a combined capacity of 83,000 barrels per day, according to George Maher-Bonnett of Argus Media.
He said this at the OTL Africa Downstream conference in Lagos on Wednesday, in a presentation titled African Energy Outlook. Modular refineries are smaller plants that process crude oil locally.
Maher-Bonnett said four modular refineries were operating in September, with a combined capacity of 32,000 barrels per day. The seven planned plants would take that sector to more than two and a half times its current size.
He did not name the seven refineries, their owners or their locations. He also gave no individual capacities or start dates, so it is not yet clear whether all seven will come on stream as projected.
Why it matters for fuel supply
More refining at home means less reliance on imported petrol, which has long exposed Nigerians to exchange rate swings and shipping costs. If the plants start as projected, the combined modular capacity could reach about 115,000 barrels per day.
Maher-Bonnett said the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lekki, with a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, is running hard with steady petrol output. That, he said, is improving Nigeria's self-sufficiency and making it less attractive to ship some petroleum products from Europe into West Africa.
He also noted that Nigerian fuel demand is down this year, which his presentation linked to higher prices. The only government intervention he cited was a price cut by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) this month.
Across the region, Ghana's 45,000-barrel-per-day Tema refinery is ramping up, adding to West African supply. Higher freight costs have also weakened the economics of moving fuel from Europe to West Africa and to the United States.
What happens next
The key question is whether the seven modular refineries actually start next year as projected, and whether they run steadily once they do. Their impact on pump prices will depend on production costs, crude supply and market conditions, not just on new capacity coming online.
