World Bank: Lagos to reach 16.2m people by 2050 as Luanda overtakes it
- A new World Bank report projects Lagos will grow from 12.8 million people in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050.
- Angola's Luanda is expected to leap past Lagos to become sub-Saharan Africa's biggest city, with 20.3 million residents.
- Onitsha and Kano are also set to grow sharply, putting pressure on jobs, housing and transport.
Lagos will keep growing, but it will no longer be sub-Saharan Africa's biggest city by 2050, according to a new World Bank report.
The bank's study, Sub-Saharan Africa's Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation, puts Lagos at 12.8 million residents in 2025, rising to 16.2 million by 2050 — a jump of more than 25%.
Angola's capital, Luanda, is projected to grow much faster, from 11.4 million to 20.3 million people over the same period, an increase of 78%. That would push Luanda past Lagos as the region's most populous city.
For ordinary Nigerians, the numbers matter because they point to more pressure on the things city dwellers already struggle with: housing, transport, water, electricity and paid work.
Other Nigerian cities are growing too
Onitsha is projected to expand fastest among Nigerian cities in the report, from 5.6 million people in 2025 to 8.7 million in 2050 — about 55% growth. It is expected to stay among the region's 15 largest cities.
Kano is projected to rise by 31%, from 4.8 million to about 6.3 million. But the report says Kano will drop out of the top 15 by 2050.
The World Bank estimates sub-Saharan Africa's urban population grew from 170.2 million in 1975 to 912.6 million in 2025. The number of people living in cities rose from 64 million to 502.9 million.
Population growth alone does not create prosperity, the report warns. It says the region needs roughly 15 million new jobs every year to keep up with its young workforce.
It also notes that between 2014 and 2024, sub-Saharan Africa added more than 181 million urban residents while real GDP per capita stayed around $4,370.
"A doubling of the urban population implies a need to double either urban employment or labor productivity over the same period, just for urban GDP per capita to stay constant — a daunting task," the report said.
What the bank wants governments to do
The World Bank recommends that big cities invest in transport, affordable housing and infrastructure so that businesses and workers can cluster together. It also calls for rules that let firms and employees settle closer to jobs.
On the edges of fast-growing cities, it advises governments to build road networks and set aside land for infrastructure before unplanned building takes over.
Paschal Donohoe, World Bank Group managing director and chief knowledge officer, said the region's urban shift "can transform the region's jobs market" if the right investments and reforms are made.
Mark Roberts, a senior urban economist at the bank and co-author of the report, said Africa's urban transformation "will deliver on its promise only if cities have the institutions and resources to manage growth effectively."
The report also points to Lagos's bus reforms as an example of how linking formal and informal transport can connect workers to jobs.
Lagos State has been preparing for growth. In April 2026, it said it was updating its 2050 mobility master plan around rail, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and ferries. The state's transport authority says Lagos records more than 20 million trips a day.
In October 2026, the state also unveiled a development plan aimed at building an economy worth nearly $1 trillion by 2052, with 447 initiatives across 21 sectors.
What happens next
The World Bank's projections are long-range estimates, not certainties. How Lagos, Onitsha and Kano cope will depend on whether roads, housing, water and jobs keep pace with the people arriving.