Sundiata Post lab sets out 19-point test for measuring a fading state

A Nigerian research outfit has laid out the full design of a tool it says can measure how far a state has quietly lost control of its own territory, money and people.

The Decoupling Sovereignty Index (DSI), built by the Sundiata Post Knowledge Lab, scores what its authors call "sovereign decay" across three vectors: Money, Land and Mind. The methodology was published in the fourth part of a series, according to BusinessDay, which carried the instalment.

Each vector is scored from zero to ten. Zero means the formal state is fully functioning; ten means it has completely decoupled from the people living there. Each vector carries one third of the final score, no matter how many indicators sit inside it.

Nineteen indicators, three equal parts

The Money vector has six indicators, Land has seven and Mind has six, making nineteen in all. The authors say the weighting is deliberate: Land has more dimensions to measure, but it is not allowed to drown out the other two.

Among the Money measures are a parallel taxation rate, tracking levies by non-state actors on traders, artisans and transport; a formal tax compliance deficit; and a harvest tax rate, which captures what farmers pay at the point of production. The Land vector looks at things like the real reach of state security forces, the density of checkpoints run by non-state groups, and how much farmland has been abandoned or seized.

The lab says the indicators are universal, so scores can be compared across zones, but that how each one is observed depends on the setting. Sub-indicators are chosen for each zone, whether agrarian, pastoral, mining, riverine or urban, and recorded alongside the score.

The authors argue that in what they call "Shadow Order" environments, respondents censor themselves and official data is compromised, so no single signal can be trusted. The index therefore builds in overlap, with neighbouring indicators checking each other. Where they disagree, the authors say, the disagreement is itself useful information.

Where full fieldwork is not possible, four anchor indicators give a provisional reading, to be completed to all nineteen for the formal record.

For ordinary Nigerians, the practical question is what such a score would capture. The index counts the levies a trader pays at a market gate, the checkpoints on a highway, the share of business done in foreign currency or by barter, and how much a household leans on money sent from abroad. Those are costs and risks people already feel in their pockets and on their roads.

The lab says the detailed rules for each indicator are set out in a separate methodology and manual.