Petrol imports fall 59% as local refining takes bigger share, but supply still lags demand

Nigeria imported far less petrol in the first nine months of 2026, as local refineries supplied a bigger share of the fuel the country uses. But the drop in imports did not close the gap between what the country receives and what it consumes.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows daily petrol imports fell from 24.8 million litres in January to 10.2 million litres in September, a drop of 58.9 per cent.

Over the same period, petrol from domestic refineries rose. In September 2026, local refineries supplied 28.5 million litres a day, up 61.9 per cent from 17.6 million litres a day in September 2025.

That meant locally supplied petrol made up 73.6 per cent of the 38.7 million litres received daily in September, while imports accounted for 26.4 per cent.

Supply still below consumption

The shift did not mean more fuel overall. Total petrol receipts fell 23.4 per cent from 50.5 million litres a day in August to 38.7 million litres in September.

Domestic receipts dropped 20.6 per cent, from 35.9 million litres to 28.5 million litres a day. Imports fell 30.1 per cent, from 14.6 million litres to 10.2 million litres a day.

At the same time, petrol consumption rose 7 per cent, from 41.5 million litres a day in August to 44.4 million litres in September. That left a gap of 5.7 million litres a day, with receipts covering about 87.2 per cent of reported consumption.

The NMDPRA blamed the September decline on lower domestic supply and imports, saying approved import permit volumes were being exhausted.

Stock cover rose slightly from 22.9 days in August to 23.9 days in September, but stayed below the regulator's 30-day benchmark.

ThisDay reported that the Dangote refinery ran above its installed capacity in September, producing 47.22 million litres of petrol a day, up from 41.94 million litres in August. Yet its domestic deliveries fell to 28.5 million litres a day, while exports rose 59 per cent to 15.47 million litres a day.

Pump prices remained high. The NMDPRA's indicative price was ₦1,371.01 per litre in Lagos, ₦1,420.01 in Abuja, ₦1,447.75 in Kano and ₦1,464.75 in Maiduguri. The highest actual price recorded was ₦1,445 per litre in Abuja, and the lowest was ₦1,293.75 in Lagos.

Diesel supply also fell. Daily receipts dropped 40 per cent, from 14.5 million litres in August to 8.7 million litres in September, the lowest in the 13 months covered by the data, even as consumption edged up to 14.5 million litres a day.

Cooking gas improved. Daily receipts rose 9 per cent to 4.7 kilotonnes, with domestic supply up 50 per cent and imports down 85 per cent.

What happens next

Whether petrol imports stay low depends on local refineries delivering enough fuel steadily to meet demand. The NMDPRA data suggests that lower imports alone have not removed supply pressure, and stock cover remains below the regulator's benchmark.